西部期货早评：美元强势LME铜走出九连阴  沪铜承压

走势回顾

内盘方面

昨日沪铜主力震荡收阴，开盘37240点，最高37270点，最低37000点，收盘37180点，较上日下跌130点，跌幅0.35%，成交14.8万手，较上一交易日减少50174手，总持仓19.2万手，较上一交易日减少2176手；沪铜主力夜盘震荡，收37160点，跌20点。

外盘方面

昨日伦铜剧烈震动，收盘4644点，较上日下跌8点，跌幅0.17%；COMEX铜主力合约震荡收阴，收盘2.09点，跌0.005点，跌幅0.24%；

现货市场

据长江有色网，昨日1#铜价格37,330—37,390元/吨，均价37360元/吨，跌100元/吨。

基本面分析

近期，美元依然维持强势。美元至7个月高位，美元指数突破98关口。近期美元强势，令铜价上方承压。截止目前，美元指数98.696。由于美元指数不断上涨，LME铜跌幅较为明显，已走出9连阴。我国沪铜目前较为抗跌，近期维持弱势盘整格局，但随着消费旺季的逐渐结束，基本面目前仍无太多利好支撑，上方压力较大。

行业方面，铜现货升水200。LME库存减少1800吨，至346775吨，注销仓单占比为30.24%，较10月份中上旬有所回升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

技术面分析

MACD白线穿插黄线向下运行。沪铜近期上方37500压力，下方37000支撑。

总体评述

因中国9月份贸易数据显示出口急剧下滑，引发全球需求忧虑。根据中国海关总署公布的数据显示，中国9月进口铜同比下滑近四分之一，此表明中国金属铜需求疲软，而中国是全球最大的铜消费国。数据显示，中国9月进口铜340000吨，环比下滑2.9%，同比下滑26%，为自2015年8月以来的最低水平。中国9月进口精铜矿139万吨，较8月下滑4.1%。中国精炼铜高度依赖进口，而进口量的减小反映出中国消费端动力不足。随着十月的结束，铜消费旺季也逐渐进入尾声，后期来看，铜价上方压力较大，偏空思路为主。

【市场数据快报】

国内市场
品种	报价市场	规格（合约）	均价(收盘价)	涨跌	现货升贴水
铜	长江有色网	1#铜	37360	-100	200
	上海期货交易所	Cu1605	37160	-20

 

国际市场
品种	报价市场	合约	收盘/结算价	涨跌	现货升贴水
铜	LME	现货	4637	-29	-7
		3个月（场内）	4635	-17
		3个月（电子盘）	4644	-8

 

交易所库存/注销仓单（LME为注销仓单）
上海期货交易所	库存（周度）	库存增减	仓单	仓单增减
铜	117634	-3805	25177	-4360
LME	库存	库存增减	注销仓单	注销仓单占比
铜	346775	-1800	104850	30.24%

 

持仓结构（前二十名席位持仓）
		多头	多头增减	空头	空头增减		净多	净多增减
铜	总持仓	115480	2077	121037	133		-5557	-
	主力合约持仓	54923	-115	62198	-119		-7275	-
持仓异动（主力合约）
铜	多头异动			空头异动
	席位名称	增减变化		席位名称		增减变化
	广发期货	-1001

 

【行业要闻】

金冠铜业分公司阴极铜产量质量同放异彩

9月份，金冠铜业分公司电解车间月平均阴极铜A级铜率达到99.97%，刷新了今年4月份创下的历史最佳值99.94%，电解生产质量控制迈向新的高峰。令人欣喜的是，前三季度，该公司电解车间阴极铜产量完成30.8万吨，超计划7700吨。该公司阴极铜产量质量同放光彩。“A级铜率99%以上保持一个周期、两个周期体现的是技术水平；保持半年、一年体现的是管理水平。”据该公司电解车间副主任王俊杰介绍，该公司电解车间前三季度平均A级铜率达99.8%，高于历年平均值1.7个百分点。

“这与我们今年集中力量解决了一些生产中的瓶颈问题相关。”王俊杰表示，在电铜生产过程中，该车间以平衡电解东、西系统为基础，全过程关注电铜质量控制。目前，该公司电解系统的单系统产能已达20万吨，其规模之大一定程度上提高了系统的适应性和稳定性，但是也存在着船大掉头难的特点，这对系统的控制提出了更高的要求。为实现东、西系统平衡目标，该车间严细管理，精心操作，使电解东、西系统的电解液杂质成分、铜酸浓度、体积等各项指标均趋于一致，为后期的生产控制创造了良好的控制环境。

在生产趋于稳定后，该车间对各个班组的每名员工的操作能力进行了梳理，对操作能力相对薄弱的员工有针对性地进行培训学习，并结合收集整理的员工平时操作中好的方法和经验教训，进一步优化完善操作规程，在班组中全面推广运用，从而进一步提高产品质量。

运转岗位是生产控制的前头兵，该车间从系统控制、数据控制、操作控制三大方面进行管控生产，让操作人员在专业管理模式下进行生产作业，实现了工艺技术和生产管理的有机结合，使生产组织和管理透明化、标准化，提升了质量管理的整体效率。

在车间专项管理工作中，该公司能源、TPM、绩效管理、QC等工作小组提出多个创新管理方式。其课题《降低铅板损坏率》荣获安徽省QC成果发布会一等奖，《提高真空蒸发器处理能力》获有色行业QC成果发布优秀QC小组称号。在铜电解行业，该公司率先将水、电、汽、气进行综合能耗管理，持续与先进水平对标。这些创新的课题和措施很大程度上促进了阴极铜产量和质量的提升，为该公司高质量超产提供了保障。

 

 

备注：本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料，公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述期货买卖的出价或征价。本报告由西部期货有限公司提供，我公司具有投资咨询业务资格，本报告的版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、发表或引用。

西部期货有色金属信息早报10.24.pdf