西部期货早评：近期美元维持强势 期铜上方压力较大

走势回顾

内盘方面

昨日沪铜主力跳空低开，开盘37210点，最高37460点，最低37110点，收盘37370点，较上日下跌260点，跌幅0.69%，成交22.7万手，较上一交易日增加29158手，总持仓19.5万手，较上一交易日减少10330手；沪铜主力夜盘震荡下行，收37200点，跌170点。

外盘方面

昨日伦铜震荡下行，收盘4675.5点，较上日下跌39.5点，跌幅0.84%；COMEX铜主力合约震荡收阴，收盘2.1055点，跌0.0185点，跌幅0.87%；

现货市场

据长江有色网，昨日1#铜价格37560-37620元/吨，均价37590元/吨，跌440元/吨。

基本面分析

周五，耶伦在波士顿联储组织的会议上发表讲话，她并未就利率政策作出直接评价，但耶伦指出，美国经济复苏缓慢，令经济在一段时间内维持加热状态是合理的，这可以帮助修复在经济衰退期间增长不足带来的负面影响。近期，美元指数维持强势，截至当前，美元指数上涨至98.079。

行业方面，铜现货升水220。LME库存增加2925吨，至349075吨，注销仓单占比为27.86%，较前期有所回升。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

技术面分析

MACD白线穿插黄线向下运行，发出死叉信号。沪铜近期偏空思路为主，上方37500压力，下方37000支撑。

总体评述

因中国9月份贸易数据显示出口急剧下滑，引发全球需求忧虑。根据中国海关总署公布的数据显示，中国9月进口铜同比下滑近四分之一，此表明中国金属铜需求疲软，而中国是全球最大的铜消费国。数据显示，中国9月进口铜340000吨，环比下滑2.9%，同比下滑26%，为自2015年8月以来的最低水平。中国9月进口精铜矿139万吨，较8月下滑4.1%。中国精炼铜高度依赖进口，而进口量的减小反映出中国消费端动力不足。随着十月的结束，铜消费旺季也逐渐进入尾声，后期来看，铜价上方压力较大，偏空思路为主。

【市场数据快报】

国内市场
品种	报价市场	规格（合约）	均价(收盘价)	涨跌	现货升贴水
铜	长江有色网	1#铜	37590	-440	220
	上海期货交易所	Cu1605	37370	-260

 

国际市场
品种	报价市场	合约	收盘/结算价	涨跌	现货升贴水
铜	LME	现货	4673	-81	-2.5
		3个月（场内）	4675	-37
		3个月（电子盘）	4675.5	-39.5

 

交易所库存/注销仓单（LME为注销仓单）
上海期货交易所	库存（周度）	库存增减	仓单	仓单增减
铜	121439	14381	26511	3049
LME	库存	库存增减	注销仓单	注销仓单占比
铜	349075	2925	97250	27.86%

 

持仓结构（前二十名席位持仓）
		多头	多头增减	空头	空头增减		净多	净多增减
铜	总持仓	114192	-3837	133463	-2339		-19271	-
	主力合约持仓	37000	-1080	39167	219		-2167	-
持仓异动（主力合约）
铜	多头异动			空头异动
	席位名称	增减变化		席位名称		增减变化

 

【行业要闻】

未锻造的铜及铜材进口量是否还有下降空间？

中国海关总署公布的数据显示，中国9月未锻造的铜及铜材进口34万吨，同比减少26.09%，环比减少2.86%，为2015年2月以来的最低水平。

虽然自今年5月来未锻造的铜及铜材进口量在逐渐下滑，但1-9月进口铜累计为378万吨，同比仍增加11.21%，主要贡献来自于今年上半年，今年进口表现为前高后低和2015年刚好对调。

进口量持续下滑不能理解成中国的铜需求疲弱导致，据SMM调研显示，9月国内下游消费尚可。SMM认为进口量仍低，主因进口铜盈利窗口多数时间处于关闭状态所致，且部分进口铜流向LME仓库，9月底LME铜库存较月初增加近7万吨；此外一个原因是，目前临近长单签订期，因希望在11月谈判中能取得较为有利的价格谈判优势，国外冶炼厂近期有控制货源的动作。

SMM预计，因进口持续减少，而国内刚性需求仍在且好于预期，上期所铜库存被持续消耗，截止9月底SHFE公布的铜库存降至107058吨，已逐渐接近近几年最低水平7万多吨，上期所铜库存若接近极限，将迫使进口铜不得不再度重返国内市场，预计未锻造的铜及铜材进口量进一步下滑的空间有限。

 

 

备注：本报告中的信息均来源于已公开的资料，公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述期货买卖的出价或征价。本报告由西部期货有限公司提供，我公司具有投资咨询业务资格，本报告的版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、发表或引用。

 

西部期货有色金属信息早报10.17.pdf